A monsoon fantasy

I live in the outskirts of a semi-desert.  It usually doesn’t rain much here.  And when it does, it’s seldom anything bigger than a few drizzles.  In fact, it didn’t shower at all for a few years in the earlier part of this decade.  When it finally rained one day, I couldn’t remember whether I had an umbrella! 

This year though it has been different.  Pleasantly, it has rained quite regularly.  And not just drizzles.  Some days, you can actually call it a pour.  No, it’s not quite the monsoon.  How can it be when the temparature outside is in the single digits?  It is, of course, monsoon in Desh.  As I look outside my window and see a barren, red earth getting soaked, I imagine clouds gathering over a bustling city. 

Dear reader, let’s forget our troubled politics today, and fantasise about a monsoon day in the city.

Minus 1 – or the loser now will be later to win

I finished the last post by noting that forecast is hard, particularly about the future.  Anyone who works in the forecasting business – political pundits, macroeconomists, weather guys, doctors – would tell you how the particular event being forecast is a special case that lowers the chance of getting it right.  So I won’t bother with making a call about which of the players in Bangladesh’s political dance will survive the next few weeks (the conventional wisdom is that a lot is to happen in the month since Hasina Wajed’s release).  Instead, I do three things.  First, I show why cutting a deal with either of the netris is sensible for Gen Moeen.  Second, I point out that it is not in either netri’s interest to cut a deal – that’s what the title refers to.  Third, I wonder what this might mean for the regime’s hand. 

Three is a crowd

The regular reader will know that I am no fan of Bangladesh’s de facto military government.  I am for an immediate end to the emergency and transfer of power to an elected government – there is no ifs and buts here.  The devil is, of course, in the details.  And one particularly important detail is that we don’t have two players – the regime and the opposition - in the current political game, we have three – the regime, opposition A and opposition B.  This makes for a difficult situation.  Three players can’t produce a stable equilibrium.  Dear reader, three is a crowd, and when this game ends, at least one of the players will be no more.  The question is, who will go, and how, and what that might mean.

On the 2008-09 Budget

The military-backed government of Bangladesh announced the country’s Budget for the 2008-09 financial year earlier this week.  The task of a Bangladeshi finance minister is never easy, regardless of the political persuasion of the government.  And striking the right balance at a time of rising inflation and global economic slowdown would have been difficult for any finance minister in the world.  

Considering all this, the Budget is perhaps not as bad as the habitual knee-jerk reactions by opposition parties suggest.  In fact, it probably is on balance not too dissimilar to what any other government could have achieved in the current circumstances.  That said, I do have some reservations.

On trade deficits, the India bogey, and a disturbing vision

In 2004-05, Bangladesh exported goods and services worth 8.7 billion taka to India.  This was double the amount exported in the previous year.  But in that year, Bangladesh’s import from India amounted over 84 billion taka.  This massive trade deficit is a major irritant in Indo-Bangla relationship.  On any given day, one is likely to read an op-ed in the print media or hear a talking head in the electronic media arguing that India must take more action to narrow this deficit.  And there is a degree of truth in these arguments.  India does have significant non-tariff barriers against Bangladeshi goods and services while the Bangladeshi market is essentially open.  You can’t export Bangladeshi books to Kolkata for example.  Nor are Bangladeshi TV channels available across the border. 

But there is more to the story of our trade deficits.  How often do you hear about our ‘massive trade deficit with China’, and how this is a proof that China is crippling our economy?