The clear and present danger

Regular readers would be aware of my views about Bangladesh’s current political situation.  We had a miliatry coup on 11 Jan 2007.  Any initial hope that the coupmakers were not like others that came before them quickly faded, and I am under no illusion about the true intentions of Gen Moeen his mates.  While Moeen’s minimum objective at the moment is indemnity against future retribution, beyond this, he would very much like to have a political presence (see here).  And behind him, the army seems to have developed corporate ambitions.   

I take the above as given, and analyse some scenarios.  More probable scenarios are presented first.  None of the scenarios augur well for us, but some pose lot bigger danger than others.  The more dangerous ones are presented later.  I argue that the possibility of a President Moeen armed with a National Security Council is the biggest danger we face. 

On Jodhaa Akbar

Just in case you are not familiar with the world of Hindi movies, Jodhaa Akbar is one of the most expensive movies ever made in India.  Set in the 16th century, it is based on Emperor Akbar’s relationship with his Rajput wife Jodhaa Bai.  This is my take on the movie.  Short version: it lacks direction.  Long version, read on.

Are we in a ‘dirty war’?

The term ‘dirty war’ refers to the way the Argentine military junta kidnapped, tortured, killed or simply forced the disappearance of its civilian political opponents during the late 1970s.  Similar tactics were used by other contemporary Latin American juntas.  The crucial difference between a run of the mill counter-insurgency and the Argentine-style dirty war is that the latter involves state sponsored violence against unarmed, civilian political opposition.

Are we in a ‘dirty war’ in Bangladesh?

On the monetary policy in Bangladesh

An IMF team has recently concluded a two-week-long visit to Bangladesh for reviewing the country’s economy.  The visit was for the annual ‘Artcile IV’ consultation process.  This consultation process involves IMF economists visiting the member country to gather information and hold discussions with bureaucrats, private investors, and other stakeholders including politicians, labor representatives, civil society organizations, and academics.  The economists then submit a report to the Fund’s Executive Board.  The Board reviews the report and sends it to the country’s government.  At this point, a press release is issued.  If the government agrees to it, the report itself is published. 

As far as I can tell, full reports for Bangladesh were released in 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007.  I’m not sure if a full report is forthcoming this year.  Here is the official press release.  Highlights:

• Macroeconomic performance was remarkably resilient in a year of multiple natural disasters and elevated international food and fuel prices;
• The main priority is to keep control of inflationary pressures stemming from global prices and domestic demand.
• [D]espite the sizeable allocations made in the budget, recent movements in international commodity markets suggest that additional spending for fuel and fertilizer subsidies will likely be required.

The second point has received considerable attention in the media, and is the focus of this post.

Contemplating Minus 2

Previously in Mukti’s mid-year political roundup:

• the three players in Bangladesh’s current political game may have non-negotiables that are far smaller than absolute power (indemnity for Moeen, safety of her sons for Khaleda, justice/retribution for Hasina);
• Moeen would be hapy to cut a deal with either netris;
• but both of them have reasons to break whatever deal is brokered.   

That is, Minus 1 won’t work – either both the netris will be gone, or neither will.  This post contemplates Minus 2 seriously, and discusses two questions.  Firstly, exactly what makes the regime think it can pull off Minus 2?  Secondly, should it happen, what might the future hold?

The reader should keep in mind that what follows is the analysis of a likely out-of-touch NRB.  I don’t pretend that what I write necessarily reflects the reality of Bangladesh, and would appreciate being enlightened and educated where appropriate.