Mrs Zia has said the election results are not acceptable (grohonjoggo noi). Is that a non-rejection rejection? What can she actually do? I don’t think JI wants to go for an andolon. More than anything else, they seek legitimacy. Andolon denies them that. I’m sure BNP stalwarts — the biggest losers — will want a defiant stance, they are not in parliament, so why should they care what happens there? But these bigwigs had never led an andolon themselves. Where are the people who were in the forefront of anti-Ershad movement? Are they going to lead a street movement? Based on what? If she doesn’t join the parliament, then it seems to me that Mrs Zia runs the risk of becoming like Maolana Bhasani — a popular leader with no party or platform.
December 31, 2008
On Hasina’s press conference
Some quick thoughts on Hasina’s press conference.
December 29, 2008
Election day post
I will be participating in the liveblogging over at Unheard Voice. This quick post is just for the record.
December 28, 2008
Tea leaves in a crystal ball: predicting the outcome in Dhaka city
My day job involves a lot of forecasting, and one of my former bosses used to say, forecasting is like urinating against the wind, you feel the heat, but everyone else laughs at you. The same is true for predicting Bangladeshi elections. With very few credible opinion polls, little experience of grass root activism, or not much access to political players, it’s difficult to predict the national outcome.
I’m probably not well placed to predict the outcome in Dhaka either. But I am still going to have a crack. Based on an extremely unscientific mix of past election results, media reports, general conversations with random people in public transports / small traders around the town, and adda with friends / family / acquaintance (some of whom are actually quite knowledgeable), below are my predictions for the 15 seats in Dhaka city. Final tally: BNP 7, AL 6, JP 1, WP 1.
