Predicting the election result from the polls

1543 BDT Oct 10: Thoroughly updated for the latest PA poll.

“Had it not been for the protests, now we would all be focusing on next year’s elections and looking at the government’s record in office and the opposition’s pledges,” said Zafar Sobhan, editor of the Dhaka Tribune, an English daily. “Now, all bets are off and elections seem a distant concern. It is hard to see how things will revert to politics as usual after this.”

That’s from Syed Zain-Al-Mahmood’s excellent Guardian report on Shahbag.  That was February.  Now it’s September October.  The protesters are long gone.  And everyone’s focusing on the elections —when will they happen, how they will happen, will they really happen, who will win if they do happen, how big the margin will be.

Zafar was hardly the only one who thought that way about politics as usual.  Across the ideological and political spectrum, there was a general agreement that politics-as-usual would end in the spring and summer of 2013 —the debate really was about what would replace it.  Well, in the autumn of 2013, politics-as-usual is back with vengeance.  And this post is all about politics-as-usual.

I have nothing to say about the when and how or whether of the coming election.  Instead, let me focus on what the polls imply about the results of a hypothetical election held this winter.  Some simple calculations – details over the fold – suggest that while such an election will likely result in an unprecedented comfortable BNP landslide.  victory, AL is still very much in the race.

Time for Atiur Rahman to deliver

As far as I know, this blog is the only place that publicly criticised the appointment of Dr Atiur Rahman as the Governor of Bangladesh.  How has he performed in the last few years as the central banker?  Given the share market bubble and crash and several controversial developments — scams, ‘political’ banks, l’affaire Yunus — in the banking sector, it’s reasonably straighforward that he has failed in his task of maintaining financial stability.  On the other hand, Bangladeshi economy has shown remarkable resilience — growth has been steady around the 6% mark despite shocks such as the share market crash or the fiscal strains related to the rental power plants.  Inflation has been much higher than the Bank’s target picked up during most of the governor’s term, but has subsided recently to be within the Bank’s target (see the chart of inflation through the year, actual vs Bangladesh Bank target — source: CEIC Asia and BB). 

So, on balance, a mixed record for the Governor so far.  And over the next few months, his record can swing either way.  Unfortunately, the latest monetary policy statement suggests that there is a high risk that my fears about him will yet come true.