Tea leaves in a crystal ball: predicting the outcome in Dhaka city
My day job involves a lot of forecasting, and one of my former bosses used to say, forecasting is like urinating against the wind, you feel the heat, but everyone else laughs at you. The same is true for predicting Bangladeshi elections. With very few credible opinion polls, little experience of grass root activism, or not much access to political players, it’s difficult to predict the national outcome.
I’m probably not well placed to predict the outcome in Dhaka either. But I am still going to have a crack. Based on an extremely unscientific mix of past election results, media reports, general conversations with random people in public transports / small traders around the town, and adda with friends / family / acquaintance (some of whom are actually quite knowledgeable), below are my predictions for the 15 seats in Dhaka city. Final tally: BNP 7, AL 6, JP 1, WP 1.