On remittances 4 — the outlook
Previous posts on remittances:
– asked about the likely impact of the Arab summer;
– discussed a relatively optimistic assessment by a World Bank analyst; and
– showed the trends in the outflow of workers.
Now we have two sets of forecasts for remittances. The 2011-12 Budget expects remittances to have grown by 5% in FY11, and forecasts a growth of 10%. Asian Development Bank is more pessimistic, with growth of 3% this year and 4% next year pencilled in. By way of comparison, during the 2000s, remittances grew by 19% a year.
All these are shown in the chart.
Of course, no one predicted the Arab uprisings. But even then, it should be noted that even a year ago, ADB was more pessimistic than the government. In April 2010, ADB predicted remittances would grow by 12.5% in FY11. Two months later, the government predicted a whopping 22.4% in the Budget.
Meanwhile, Syed Zain Al-Mahmood paints a bleak picture in the Guardian.