On remittances 4 — the outlook

Posted in economics by jrahman on June 27, 2011

Previous posts on remittances:

– asked about the likely impact of the Arab summer;

– discussed a relatively optimistic assessment by a World Bank analyst; and

– showed the trends in the outflow of workers.

Now we have two sets of forecasts for remittances.  The 2011-12 Budget expects remittances to have grown by 5% in FY11, and forecasts a growth of 10%.  Asian Development Bank is more pessimistic, with growth of 3% this year and 4% next year pencilled in.  By way of comparison, during the 2000s, remittances grew by 19% a year.

All these are shown in the chart.









Of course, no one predicted the Arab uprisings.  But even then, it should be noted that even a year ago, ADB was more pessimistic than the government.  In April 2010, ADB predicted remittances would grow by 12.5% in FY11.  Two months later, the government predicted a whopping 22.4% in the Budget.

Meanwhile, Syed Zain Al-Mahmood paints a bleak picture in the Guardian.

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