Everyone misses inflation

Posted in economics, macro by jrahman on June 19, 2012


Yeah right! If only!

Okay, okay, that’s a slightly misleading title. What I meant to say was that inflation forecasts of the government, the Bangladesh Bank and the ADB are all way off. As the chart shows, except for a few months in 2008 and 2009, when the world looked to be imploding, inflation in recent years have been stronger than everyone’s prediction.

In more recent times, ADB has raised its inflation forecasts.  As with economic growth, ADB has a more pessimistic outlook (8.5%) for inflation in 2012-13 than the government (7.5%).

Who’ll be right?

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