Fifty thousand taka

As the polls-predicted ‘blue wave’ failed to materialise in the (American) evening of 3 November, I told a few friends that if Donald Trump is re-elected, I should give up any pretense to understanding politics. Well, Trump lost. So I can safely continue with political commentary, analysis, rambling. Over the fold are some rough and ready thoughts, mostly as an exercise of benchmarking own’s views.

Pandemic politics

What are the near and long term implications of the pandemic on politics? I don’t particularly mean politics in, say, Bangladesh, but more generally. This is a ‘placeholder’ post to cover vague ideas or notions that could be teased out later.

All the presidents who were men

Four years ago this weekend at a Deshi dawat I confidently made two predictions — the one I got wrong, about the race to the White House, was met with a yawn, while the one about the Iron Throne: well, I did explain how it was a show about Bangladesh, but this is for another time.  With this year’s voting well under way, in another adda, a more fundamental question came up: why do we care?

We being the more than 95% of humanity that is not American, of course.  And the answer obviously reflects the fact that the United States remains, to use Madeline Albright’s words, the indispensable nation.  For good or evil, what is done there affects us all.  One doesn’t have to support hegemony to accept that reality.  Indeed, denying it would be to behave like an ostrich. 

Soothsaying

It seemed to me last week that every man, woman, child, and their pet dog had an opinion about the US-Iran stand off.  But I have never seen anyone predict this October surprise — The Donald striking a deal with the Supreme Leader.  If that happens, then you hard it here first.

Meanwhile, let’s have a crack at some soothsaying.

• Will Boris Johnson agree a trade deal with the EU?  Yes
• Will Britain’s Labour party return to electability?  Yes
• Will Angela Merkel’s grand coalition collapse?  No
• Will Matteo Salvini come back to power in Italy?  Yes
• Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in November’s election?  No
• Will the US go into recession?  No
• Will China become world leader in 5G telecoms?  No
• Will India regain its status as the world’s fastest growing large economy?  No
• Will there be a war with Iran?  No
• Will South African debt hit junk status? Yes
• Will the protests that have shaken Latin America continue?  No
• Will France’s Emmanuel Macron engineer a “reset” with Vladimir Putin’s Russia? No
• Will we see meaningful regulation of Big Tech? No
• Will Disney+ change the game in streaming?  No
• Will Uber become profitable in 2020? No
• Will vaping be banned? No
• Will global carbon dioxide emissions fall? No
• Will Brent crude prices end the year above $65 a barrel? Yes
• Will the three-decade bond rally finally come to an end? No
• Will Europe’s banks keep slashing jobs? Yes

 

Update: Shafquat Rabbee speculated along these lines in 2019.

London calling

Two friends in the woods see a wild bear, or a wolf, or some other fierce beast.  Seeing one ready to run, the other says — You can’t out run the beast!  The reply is — Of course not, but I can out run you!

I was reminded of that when the British election results came in.  Boris Johnson is a liar, has disregarded norms and institutions of democracy, and his signature policy platform — Brexit — is just stupid.  He deserves to be thrown in the dung heap of history.  It’s just that the other side was led by people — not just Jeremy Corbyn, but his entire leadership apparatus — whose world view seems to be straight from 1919!  Anyway, many have written about Corbyn, so I don’t need to belabour the point.  I do, however, wonder if Tarique Rahman was watching the election results and thinking of the prospects of facing the son of his mother’s nemesis……

Johnson can now preside over a soft Brexit and call it a victory, pump prime the economy to avoid a recession, and then call it a victory.  Whether he does that, or something more stupid, Scotland may well go its separate ways.  Seeing the prospects of a disunited Kingdom, I am reminded of how Brexit has traditionally been done:

 

And anyone who is crestfallen about the prospects of being governed by a craven knave should remember that BoJo is hardly the last mayor of Londonistan.  A jummah praying, Ramadan fasting, pork avoiding brother who is perfectly at ease with gender and sexual diversity and equality, and more importantly, someone who has the track record of competence in running a global city — isn’t Prime Minister Sadiq Khan something to look forward to?

 

No place for street fighting

Everywhere I hear the sound of marching charging feet… Mick Jagger’s wailing has never been more true since protesters rocked the streets in Paris, Prague, Mexico City, Chicago, and closer to home in Lahore and Dacca fifty years ago.  In the past few months, cities around the world have witnessed street protests.  Causes have differed — ranging from metro prices and tax on whatsapp usage to draconian laws and rigged elections.  As have results so far — ranging from policy, if not regime, change to bloody suppression.  Frankly, it’s hard to keep track of the protesters who are rocking the free and unfree world.

Of course, the political junkies that we are, we can’t help but draw conclusions and inferences from these, including what it might mean for Bangladesh.  Unsurprisingly, our reactions reflect our political biases, conscious or otherwise.  That’s why I have seen some friends noting the coup in Bolivia after the previous regime tried to rig the election, while others shared articles about the supposed death of neoliberalism in Chile.

Can we do slightly better? Unconnected and spontaneous the protests maybe, but is there really no pattern to them?

Hiatus reflections

Blogging went on hiatus in March 2013.  Since then, there has been occasional pieces, notably around the election seasons of 2013 and 2018, and a few forays every now and then on matters serious and not so.  But none of that has been regular.  What have I learnt in this extended time off?  What am I most surprised by?  What is something truly unpredictable from the 2013 vantage point?

The answer is, of course, a lot.  But in the context of Bangladesh, it should be no surprise to anyone that the longevity of the current regime would be the single most surprising development to the 2013-me.

The Finished Revolution

Traffic was uncharacteristically brisk that winter morning in Dhaka, and it took me less than an hour to get from Lalmatia to Savar.  We barely even stopped around Asad Gate, and only after we had crossed the junction that the historical significance of it occurred to me — fifty years ago that week, those red pillars in Mohammadpur got its current name.  That evening, I flicked through seemingly endless streams of Bangla channels to find not a single mention — no septuagenarian waxing nostalgic, no Tagore-quoting melodramatic fictionalisation, not even a perfunctory news item, nothing — about Asad’s bloodstained shirt.

Trust, but verify

Ataur Rahman Khan was a veteran politician with the unique achievement of becoming both the Chief Minister of East Pakistan and the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.  He achieved the first in the 1950s, when his Awami League commanded a majority in the provincial assembly after the 1954 election.  His government was dismissed in October 1958, when Iskander Mirza and Ayub Khan declared martial law.  He remained steadfastly opposed to the Ayub regime, but formed his own party — Jatiya League — after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman pipped him to the AL leadership.  He was arrested by the Pakistan army in March 1971.  He joined neither the Mujib nor the Zia regime, and was elected as an opposition MP in both 1973 and 1979.  A key member of the BNP-led alliance against the Ershad egime, he was considered a principled, seasoned counsel to the political neophyte Mrs Khaleda Zia.  I don’t know if she ever asked why he became the prime minister under HM Ershad’s military dictatorship.  But Mr Khan’s quip to a journalist was that he joined the general to help him shed his uniform and promote democracy.

I was reminded of this politician during a recent political adda where couple of online activists had come up.  Both of them staunchly self-identify as progressive, and would have been described by the so-called ‘pro-1971’ folks as fellow travellers.  One has been in exile since exposing the Bangladeshi army’s link with jihadi extremists when BNP was last in power.  The other, a vocal Shahbag reveller, is in hiding because of his criticism of the current regime.  Both of these men actively supported the Jatiya Oikya Front.  And some of my so-called ‘nationalist’ friends aren’t quite sure of the bona fide of either activist.  It occurred to me that my own record can be questioned too.  And more importantly, as we hunker down for a potentially long period of totalitarianism, how do we choose trusted allies?

One way to choose allies we can trust is by applying some form of litmus test — such and such can’t be trusted because of attending Shahbag, or supporting the 1/11 regime, or once sitting in the same table with Gholam Azam, you get the idea.  One problem with this approach is that it can become dogmatic quite quickly.  And what is the correct litmus test anyway?

An alternative approach might be to ask two sets of questions.  First, consider the person’s stated aim.  What do they say they want?  Why do they want it?  How do they propose to get it?  Second, are their actions consistent with their stated aim?  If they can explain in a satisfactory way that their actions are consistent with their aim — and note, its their aim, not ours, we don’t have to agree with their aim — then perhaps they can be given the benefit of the doubt.  If they can’t, then they are likely to be an opportunist.

The day after tomorrow

The infamous 30 December not-quite-an-election is now truly behind us, and Bangladesh today is exactly where it was five years ago.  And there is no sign of anything changing anytime soon.  The regime of Prime Minister Hasina Wajed holds a tight grip on power, and it’s hard to see anything loosening that grip today.  But tomorrow — figuratively, not literally — will certainly be different.  The super-densely populated humid swamp that is Bangladesh is always at the edge of chaos.  Credit where its due — Mrs Wajed has been extremely deft at keeping her regime, and the rest of us, from falling over the cliff.  But nothing lasts forever.  Sooner or later, there will be a tomorrow when the regime finds itself out of credit to pay off the crisis.

What will happen the day after?