Mukti

সাতকাহন

Posted in culture, food, labour, macro, Rights, society, trade, TV by jrahman on September 7, 2012

Seven trashes collected by the senses.

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Growth forecasts: ADB vs the Budget

Posted in economics, macro by jrahman on July 2, 2012

Updated: 4 July 2012, 1213 BDT: Export growth chart over the fold.

The last post on the subject showed that the difference between the ADB’s and the government’s growth forecast is now at its widest in the last decade.  While the government expects the economy to accelerate sharply in 2012-13 (FY13) to 7.2% (the thick red line in the chart), the ADB expects a slowdown to growth of 6% (thick red dots). 

There seem to be two major reasons why the forecasts diverge — one explicit, and one implicit.

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সাতকাহন

Posted in action, activism, blogging, economics, macro, movies, political economy, politics, trade by jrahman on April 6, 2012

Seven trashes collected by the senses.

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Good news from exports

Posted in economics by jrahman on May 5, 2011

According to the ADB, Bangladesh’s economy is expected to be buoyed by an exports boom in the coming year.  What’s driving the exports boom?

The ADB’s story is that exports are supported by:

  • inventory replenishment in the key markets as they recover;
  • rising wages in competitive countries;
  • product and market diversification;
  • relaxed rules of origin to EU.

Over the fold are some charts and numbers supporting a good news story on exports.

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ADB is optimistic

Posted in economics by jrahman on April 25, 2011

In its latest outlook on the Bangladesh economy (available halfway through this), ADB expects the 2010-11 (FY11) growth of 6.3%, not as bullish as the 6.7% that underpins the FY11 Budget, but unchanged from ADB’s own forecast from a year ago (halfway through this).  That is, despite the power shortage, sharemarket crash and risks around remittances, ADB hasn’t changed its view about the FY11 prospects.  And on top of this, the outlook for 2011-12 (FY12) is an acceleration to 6.7%.

These are strong endorsements of Bangladesh’s economy.  The 1/11-induced slowdown and the impacts of the global financial crisis seems to be finally behind us.  And what is behind this resilience?  Short answer: exports.  Over the fold, detailed discussion.

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