Mukti

The transition blues

Posted in democracy, development, economics, governance, institutions, politics by jrahman on October 24, 2017

….nearly every country that experienced a large democratic transition after a period of above-average growth  ….  experienced a sharp deceleration in growth in the 10 years following the democratizing transition.

That’s from the Pritchett-Summers paper covered in the last post.  Let the sentence sink in.  Then, if you’re interested in Bangladesh, read on.

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Apocalypse later, maybe

Posted in development, economics, macro by jrahman on October 21, 2017

As I read about the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, it occurred to me that throughout my professional career, for some reason or other, I have had to think about the consequences of a hard landing in the Chinese economy.  It also occurs to me that I first started thinking about Bangladesh towards the end of graduate school — that is, I first fretted about an economic crisis in our People’s Republic before I ever thought about the other one.  Then I remembered this cautionary note about China (and India), which apply just as well to Bangladesh.

In its just released World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts Bangladesh economy to grow by 7% a year over the next few years.  It has been a while since I looked at the detailed data, so I am not in a position to comment on whether the IMF is too optimistic.  Look at the chart below, and think about whether 7% growth would be too optimistic?

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