Mukti

The transition blues

Posted in democracy, development, economics, governance, institutions, politics by jrahman on October 24, 2017

….nearly every country that experienced a large democratic transition after a period of above-average growth  ….  experienced a sharp deceleration in growth in the 10 years following the democratizing transition.

That’s from the Pritchett-Summers paper covered in the last post.  Let the sentence sink in.  Then, if you’re interested in Bangladesh, read on.

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Apocalypse later, maybe

Posted in development, economics, macro by jrahman on October 21, 2017

As I read about the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, it occurred to me that throughout my professional career, for some reason or other, I have had to think about the consequences of a hard landing in the Chinese economy.  It also occurs to me that I first started thinking about Bangladesh towards the end of graduate school — that is, I first fretted about an economic crisis in our People’s Republic before I ever thought about the other one.  Then I remembered this cautionary note about China (and India), which apply just as well to Bangladesh.

In its just released World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts Bangladesh economy to grow by 7% a year over the next few years.  It has been a while since I looked at the detailed data, so I am not in a position to comment on whether the IMF is too optimistic.  Look at the chart below, and think about whether 7% growth would be too optimistic?

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Recipe — aloo-phulkopi bhaji

Posted in culture, food by jrahman on October 17, 2017

Simple

Heat couple of tablespoon of mustard oil, and fry couple of medium-sized potatoes cut into small cubes until they are golden brown.  Set aside.

In the same oil, throw in four (less if you aren’t Desi) dry red chillies, one teaspoon of whole cumin seed, and couple of bay leaves. Couple of minutes later, add a finely chopped medium-sized onion.  Fry till golden brown.

Add a medium-sized cauliflower chopped into very small florets.  Stir couple of times and add salt.  Reduce heat and saute for three minutes.  Add potatoes and peas.  Reduce heat to very low, and cook covered for a few minutes.

Uncover.  Check for salt.  Turn the heat high.  Stir fry until vegetables are browned.  Add three chopped spring onions before removing.

*Chitrita Banerjee, Bengali Cooking: seasons and festivals.

Fancy

Heat two tablespoons of ghee.  Fry for a few seconds one and half teaspoon of white cumin seed, quarter teaspoon of black cumin seed, and half teaspoon black mustard seed.

Add one large potato cut into small cubes, and stir-fry for five minutes.

Add one teaspoon salt, one teaspoon chilli powder, one teaspoon turmeric powder, and one teaspoon coriander powder.

Add a medium cauliflower split into florets.

Stir to mix the ingredients well.  Add three tablespoon of whisked yogurt and simmer until vegetables are cooked.  A few minutes before ending, add one teaspoon of garam masala and one table spoon of fresh coriander leaves.

*Joyce Westrip, Moghul Cooking: India’s courtly cuisine.

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Joy (the other) Bangla?

Posted in Bengal, comedy, Drama, history, movies by jrahman on October 11, 2017

Interesting things maybe happening in the Indian Bengal, and not just with films, though a film is a pretty good place to start.  Aparna Sen’s Goynar Baksho — a family dramedy about changing role of women in the mid-20th century bhadralok society — garners two wholehearted cheers.  Moushumi Chatterjee puts on perhaps the best performance of her career, and Konkona Sen Sharma is in her exquisite elements.  That’s two cheers, not quite a third for Srabanti Chatterjee though, who pales before the two veterans.  More importantly, the first two-thirds of the movie is astute social commentary that is simply fun to watch.  Depiction of the partition-induced transformation of a landed gentry East Bengali caste Hindu family into trade-dependent petit bourgeois is up there with the best of partition-related art.  Indian Bengalis tend to have a hard time pulling off East Bengali accent — this is a rare and pleasant exception.  For all that, however, the movie is far from being a great one because of its last third.  And yet, it’s the ending that made me think.

The story ends with this:

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When fact is fiction

Posted in fantasy, movies, music, thriller by jrahman on July 15, 2017

I live in a country that Lyndon Johnson once called the ‘ass end of the world’ — whichever direction you travel, there is no short flight from this southern land.  One good thing about the long haul flight, however, is the chance to watch stuff that you otherwise might not have, provided you’re flying a decent carrier, of course.  My usual guilty pleasures are sitcoms — I think I watched more HIMYM and Big Bang Theory episodes airborne than on my couch.

I made an exception recently.  The Emirates have a reasonable collection of Bangla (or given they are from the Indian Bengal, should I say Bengali?) movies.  I was curious, and wasn’t left disappointed.  It appears that a number of noir films have come out of Kolkata recently.  How exciting, right?

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Political impact of remittances

Posted in democracy, elections, labour, political economy, politics by jrahman on July 12, 2017

Along with the garments industry and the NGOs, there is a broad consensus that remittances have played a key role in Bangladesh’s economic development over the past decades.  Notwithstanding that broad consensus, the economic impact of remittances may be more nuanced than one might think, as I conjectured a long time ago:

Well, how about a stylised, and very speculative, story along this line — while RMG has meant women entering the formal workforce, migrant worker boom has sent a lot of risk-taking men overseas; aided by the NGOs and microcredit, households have smoothed consumption and invested in human capital of their children; but they have not invested in physical capital, avoided entrepreneurial activities, and have not pushed for a more investment-friendly polity.

We would want to explore this story further. We would also want to explore the income side of GDP, and tie it into a political economy analysis.

The remittance boom, for example, should see the labour share of the economy rise. Of course, the question is, what happens to the money that is remitted back? It’s reasonable to assume that unskilled labourers are from the poorer parts of the society. So, in the first instance, any remittance back to the villages is a good thing in that it reduces the direst type of poverty — that is it stops things like famine or malnutrition. But what happens after that? My tentative hunch is that a lot of remittance has been saved but not invested in a productive way, rather they ended up fuelling land/stock prices —this is an area that needs to be explored in detail.

Needless to say, I have not followed up on these questions.  But at least the economic impact of remittances is something people have thought about.  What about the political impacts?  That’s the question Shafiqur Rahman of Oregon University explores.*

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Economic herstory

Posted in development, economics by jrahman on July 5, 2017

I have been trying to get back into the habit of writing.  Nothing fancy or ambitious.  Around a thousand or so words a week.  I asked a close friend on what I should be writing about.  He advised:

Rotate between three big buckets: politics/history, pop culture, and economics. When writing about the first topic, make sure it won’t sound ridiculous in six months. And avoid talking about people and focus more on theory and data.

My friend reminded me of this passage from a three-decade old paper on economic growth.

The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.

I wonder what Nancy Stokey feels about that!  My partner will for sure not be happy if I spend all my time thinking about economics.  But when not thinking about strange stuff, it is indeed harder to come up with a bigger question than why some societies have so much higher living standards than others.

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Mountains of the Moon – 8

Posted in adventure, books, Chander pahar, fantasy by jrahman on June 18, 2017

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A Bangladeshi superhero

Posted in adventure, Bangladesh, books, desi fiction, history, thriller by jrahman on May 11, 2017

It’s a sun-drenched, ocean-front, posh hotel where the scene is set.  A diabolical fiend is cheating on a game of cards with the aid of an earphone and a skimpily clad assistant with a binocular.

Enter our hero.

Watching the classic scene for the first time all those years ago, my thought was — whoa, 007 ripped off Masud RanaI had read Swarnamriga a few weeks before watching Goldfinger — first Rana novel and Bond flick for the schoolboy who didn’t know the original.  I suspect many Bangladeshis of certain ages would have similar Rana stories to share.

Okay, it is quite possible, likely even, that the typical reader has no idea what I am talking about.  A brief primer from wiki:

Masud Rana is a fictional character created in 1966 by writer Qazi Anwar Hussain, who featured him in over 400 novels.  Hussain created the adult spy-thriller series Masud Rana, at first modelled after James Bond, but expanded widely. …  books are published almost every month by Sheba Prokashoni, one of the most popular publishing house of Bangladesh….

Although there is no superpower as such, his attributes would make a combination of Batman, Bond, and Bourne pale before Rana. Of course, superheroes need supervillains.  Rana’s arch-nemesis is a megalomaniac genius scientist criminal mastermind named Kabir Chowdhury, who’s also a fellow Bangladeshi.  And then there is Israel.  However, it’s his foes from the first decade or so of the series that make for a fascinating political study.

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Dhaka consensus

Posted in democracy, Islamists, politics by jrahman on April 17, 2017

The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity — wrote WB Yeats nearly a century ago.  Given his own illiberal politics, I am pretty sure to him neither were liberals particularly good nor nationalists and statists bad.  But these days, it does seem that it is the liberal democrats who lack all conviction, while those full of passionate intensity usually idolise a strong state in the service of ‘the people’ — though often there is vocal, sometimes violent, disagreement about exactly who constitutes the said people.

Liberalism has never had much support in Bangladesh, where the writers and critics dealing with ideas have tended to cling to some variant of statism and nationalism.  In fact, as Shafiqur Rahman notes, there is:

…. a curious complete inversion of progressive thinking in Bangladesh compared to the rest of the world.

Throughout the world universalism and rationality are regarded as the bedrock of progressive thinking; in Bangladesh parochial nationalism and emotion are the guiding principles of progressives. Throughout the world progressive historians regard debunking national exceptionalism and national glory as essential for historiography; in Bangladesh progressives regard glorifying national history and suffusing it with strong emotions as the sacred duty of historians.

Throughout the world the best literature are dispassionate and clinical analysis of the human and social condition, in Bangladesh the more emotions you can pour in art and literature the better is its reception to the critical elite. Throughout the world the best political commentators are those who can provide detached, reasoned analysis of political developments, in Bangladesh the best political commentary are saturated with messianic imagery and the most cloying emotional appeals.

Shafiq calls this Bangladeshi intellectual paradox, and goes on to offer an explanation.  His thesis is that in the post-9/11 world,  Bangladeshi elite (his term) reached a consensus that ‘…a fundamentalism based on national glory, sacrosanct past and hallowed individuals’ was the only defence against the risk of a political order rooted in fundamentalist Islam, and liberal notions such as ‘universalism, rationality, freedom of expression’ would only weaken that defence.

I broadly agree with Shafiq’s analysis — under different life circumstances might have written something like this myself.  Of course, a good piece should make one think, and this made me get out of my stupor to jot down my thoughts.

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